Tuesday Nov 24, 2009

The net inflow of migration continued to climb last month, pushing the annual gain to 18,600, its highest level for more than five years.

It compares with an average annual gain of 11,400 since 1990, but remains well below the peak of 42,500 in the year to May 2003.

October recorded a net inflow of 3000 permanent and long-term migrants - those intending to stay for more than a year less those leaving for at least a year. That is twice as many as in October last year.

Adjusted for seasonal effects, the net gain was 2120.

It reflected 1800 fewer people leaving for Australia and 200 fewer for Britain.

On the inbound side, there were 500 fewer migrants - 100 more returning expatriates but 600 fewer non-New Zealand citizens.

In the year ended October the net outflow to Australia was 21,200, down from 36,400 the previous year.

But the decline may be shortlived.

"With the Australian economy avoiding recession and starting to benefit from the pick-up in hard commodity prices, employment growth in Australia is likely to recover over the next year," ASB economist Jane Turner said. "Given New Zealand's relatively weak economy, relocating to Australia will look increasingly attractive to New Zealanders once again."

The pick-up in population growth had been fuelling demand for housing over the past six months, Turner said, while the supply of housing for sale had remained below average, creating very tight conditions in the housing market.

"Combined with low interest rates and a recovery in confidence, house prices have started to pick up substantially."

This threatened a return to an economy too leveraged to housing debt.

(Source NZHerald, Brian Fallow)